Bangladesh Election: Sheikh Hasina wins controversial fourth term

Bangladeshi prime minister wins again amid accusations of political repression and a boycott from the primary opposition party.

Sheikh Hasina in 2014, she has been PM for the last 15 years - photo by Russel Watkins via the Department for International Development

Accusations of repression and election fraud surround the PMs re-election

On the 7th of January, Sheikh Hasina was elected for her fourth straight term as Prime Minister, winning 223 of 300 available seats. The legitimacy of this election, however, has been marred by controversy, with the organisation Transparency International Bangladesh calling it an ‘ominous sign’ for the future of democracy in Bangladesh.

The primary opposition party, the Bangladeshi Nationalist Party (BNP), protested the election. The party spokesperson Ruhul Kabir Risvi, called it a ‘dummy election,’ that had produced a ‘dummy parliament.’ Khaleda Zia, leader of the BNP, as well as thousands of other activists have been arrested, and Sheikh Hasina labelled them a ‘terrorist party.’ 

“Political repression should not be viewed as a new development in Bangladesh. The recent behaviour of the Awami League closely resembles the events running up to the election in 2018.”

On the 28th of November prior to the election, the BNP held a rally in Dhaka. Protesters were met with violent repression from the police, who used both tear gas and rubber bullets. In the immediate weeks, the Human Rights Watch have reported 10,000 activists have been arrested, 16 people killed and 5,500 wounded. Among those arrested include BNP secretary General Mizra Kakhrul Islam Alamgir, joint secretary general Kaihrul Kabir Khokon and Vice chairman Altaf Hossain Chowdhury – on charges that the Human Rights Watch have called ‘baseless.’

The result of this repression was an election where the Awami League, which Sheikh Hasina leads, went effectively unchallenged. Voter turnout stood at just 41.8% percent, decreasing from 80 percent in the 2018 election. The Financial Times has noted that the parties running against the Awami League appeared to be doing so with the League’s ‘tacit approval’.

The preceding September, the US had announced a series of visa restrictions for Bangladeshis ‘responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic process in Bangladesh.’ In response, the Foreign Minister Al Abdul Momen called such criticism ‘false propaganda,’ designed to ‘make chaos’ in Bangladesh. Other powers, such as India and China have offered firm support to Sheikh Hasina in the wake of the recent election.

Political repression should not be viewed as a new development in Bangladesh. The recent behaviour of the Awami League closely resembles the events running up to the election in 2018. The Awami League won 288 out of 298 seats, but there were widely reported accusations of political harassment and vote rigging. The Daily Star also reported that the Awami League had been stuffing ballots, such as in the Gulshan Model School and College in Dhaka.

This is also a story that stretches back to the nation's creation. Since separating from a largely repressive Pakistani Government in 1971, the legacies of these events have continued to leave an imprint on Bangladeshi political life. This state of affairs is engrained in the biographies of the current political leadership. Sheikh Hasina’s father, Mujibur Rahman, was murdered in 1975 as part of a political coup. Khaleda Zia, Hasina’s principal political opponent of the last 15 years, was the husband of Ziaur Rahman, who was Assassinated in 1981 while serving as prime minister.

In the time since, Bangladesh has fluctuated between periods of military rule and fragile democracy. Between 1991 and 2008, four elections were organised by a caretaker non-partisan system, with the BNP and Awami League alternating power. In 2008, however, the Awami League won such a significant majority that it was able to abolish this system. As political scientist David Lewis has argued, the country is grasped by a ‘winner takes all’ political culture, with weak but authoritarian political parties. 

What next for Sheikh Hasina and Bangladesh?

Sheikh Hasina has often been seen as a highly successful leader. She was prime minister from 1996-2001, and then from 2009 to the present day, making her the longest serving female Prime Minister in the world.

While political repression has never been absent from her leadership, it has usually been tempered by Bangladesh’s impressive economic record over the last 15 years. This is the story that has dominated global perspectives on her leadership. In the 2010’s, the average GDP growth rate was 7.2% and since the 1990s the poverty rate has decreased by two thirds.  Much of this is owed to Bangladesh’s garment industry, which is the second most valuable in the world, and accounts for 85 percent of its annual exports.

Protests in April 2014 to mark the anniversary of the Rana Palza collapse. The garment industry has been valuable to Bangladesh’s economy but a consistent point of protest and unrest - Photo via Solidarity Centre

In 2023, however, rising costs for staples pivotal to production, such as fuel and cotton, have pushed the industry into crisis, and with it the broader economy. In July, Bangladesh was forced into a $3.3 billion IMF loan, and in August inflation reached a decade high of 9.9% year on year.

This economic crisis has become largely intertwined with the political tensions surrounding the election. In early November, the government had announced an increase in the monthly minimum wage from Tk 8000 to Tk 12,500. Nearly all major unions rejected it, and the Clean Clothes Campaign called it a ‘poverty wage’. The pay increase was unacceptable to many workers, in the context of surging waves of inflation. Munna Khan, a garment worker, reported to Al Jazeera, ‘we work to survive but we can’t even cover our basic needs.’ In the following days protests erupted throughout Bangladesh's 3500 garment factories. By the 2nd November 300 factories had been forced to close. Yet, due to the government’s interference in the election, there has been no way for this anger to translate into political influence.

Nonetheless, the political scientist Avinash Paliwal has stated that despite winning the election, Sheikh Hasina will likely face mounting challenges, as the economic story continues to unfold. A majority, polled by the United States Institute of Peace recently, have said that the country is going in the wrong direction. The recent economic and political developments have created a sense of pessimism amongst the population. The question is if Sheikh Hasina can weather the next few years when her most significant source of power and popularity, economic growth, has dissipated.